Memo to Jack Layton . . . From the Fort Sask Record, regarding upgrader construction in the area:
Only two upgrader projects are presently on schedule – Shell’s first phase that is under construction and Petro-Canada’s Fort Hills project, which is going through the regulatory process.
All of the rest are on hold according to Danielson and, “either waiting for financing or waiting for something to happen.”
Danielson added the projects by BA Energy and Northwest Upgrading are awaiting further cash, while StatoilHydro has delayed its upgrader startup, now proposed for 2016.
And Total, who completed their purchase of Synenco last month and placed that company’s upgrader proposal on hold, has come out with a new startup date for its original proposal.
Graph Source: Heavy Lifting
I count four upgraders on hold in Fort Sask.
Collapsing debt markets will probably put an additional kink in everyone else’s plans.
Reuters.com:
CALGARY, Alberta (Reuters) - A double whammy of tumbling crude prices and shaky credit markets could force some companies to delay multibillion-dollar Canadian oil sands projects, cutting the country’s overall output forecast.
Most at risk are developments that are in the design phase but have yet to start construction. Some have already been delayed due to surging costs, a tight labor market and stricter regulatory scrutiny.
In other, somewhat related news, Calgary has recorded the biggest house-price drop nationwide, and is edging closer to my average house price prediction of $380,000. I may have to revise that estimate down in light of recent capital market developments.
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{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }
Ivan prokopchuk 09.16.08 at 2:25 pm
Kinda like the downward ride on you graph, but I’m reall thinging od AIG’s collapse last night.
Toronto’s benchmark stock index was teetering on the brink of bear market territory this afternoon as investors punished financial stocks, while tumbling crude oil prices delivered another blow to energy shares.
South of the border, however, stocks rebounded on speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve was considering extending a “loan package” to cash-strapped insurer American International Group Inc. even though the central bank also disappointed investors by keeping its key interest rate unchanged.
Oh, Anxiety, Denial, Fear, Desperation, Panic.
jk 09.23.08 at 7:49 pm
This seems more like a coincidence than the market sending the appropriate signals — after all, it’s not as if the global credit crisis originated as a result of activities in the oilsands. To trot out the classic full-cost-accounting argument, I don’t think you can argue that the market is the only mechanism we need to regulate the pace of oilsands development when so many of its costs aren’t accounted for.